UKRAINE: 3 QUESTIONS - 3 ANSWERS, PART 23: MARIUPOL?

04/16/2022 By Redaktion

Austrian Armed Forces Interview Conflicts Mariupol

Oberst Markus Reisner heads the development department at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt. Here he explains some aspects in anticipation of a Russian offensive in the war in Ukraine.

The Bundeswehr expert says:

What is Russia waiting for? Why is this all taking longer? Does General Dvornikov need to establish himself first?

The operation has already begun. We are now seeing a completely different tactical leadership than in the first six weeks of the war. Ukrainian positions are only attacked after massive artillery and multiple rocket launcher strikes (especially BM-30 and BM-21 launchers). The Russians then advance slowly (1.5 km/h) and cautiously. This is currently happening at four points of the potential cauldron formation. A sustainable massive Russian force approach is only to be expected after a breakthrough in the depth of the encirclement.

In the meantime, additional forces are being continuously brought in, especially from Belgorod. The overall coordination is carried out by General Dvornikov. He has been leading this for at least ten days already. He had previously led the operation in this area, so he is familiar with the situation in detail. The result of his leadership was the successful encirclement of Ukrainian forces at Izyum and the breakthrough from the narrow space towards the south. A tank battle between Russian and Ukrainian tanks at Kamina was won by the Russians. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian forces have managed to reorganize themselves and form a stable defensive line. This shows the extremely high morale of the Ukrainian forces.

Mariupol: Why can't Russia take the city?

Large parts of the city are already under Russian control. Essentially, there are still two city districts under Ukrainian control. A fierce house-to-house combat is raging above and below the streets. Ukrainian defenders are fighting mainly from the underground cable ducts and tunnels at the "Asov Valley" industrial plant.

However, the battle for the city is in its final phase. Repeated Ukrainian breakout attempts towards the north and the capture of larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers (as evidenced by several videos) show this. Especially the members of the Azov Regiment continue to fight to the bitter end. In the event of capture, as seen from the Russian perspective, they are considered as "Nazis" and face certain death. They have no alternatives.

The Russian side aims to avoid high own losses and therefore proceeds cautiously (using drones and massive artillery). Several relief attempts by the Ukrainian side (including attempts at evacuation by ship or helicopter) have so far failed. In addition, after over 40 days of fighting, the defenders are already suffering from severe supply shortages (especially ammunition and rations).

How is Ukraine currently positioned? Will weapons arrive in time for the major Eastern offensive?

The Ukrainian forces are trying to further strengthen their existing defense positions in the Donbass (e.g. by continuously laying mines) and to conduct mobile defense. This means they occupy positions with small forces during artillery attacks and attempt to achieve a successful defense only when the Russian ground troops advance. However, the necessary shifting of forces is becoming increasingly difficult due to the massive Russian drone use (especially of the ORLAN-10 type).

In addition, Russian forces are trying to cut off the Ukrainians' supply lines using air assets (combat aircraft, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles). Selected Western weapon systems (mini-drones for artillery fire control, various anti-tank systems) are already in the Donbass or on their way (Kamikaze drones of the Switchblade 600 type).

The heavy weapon systems promised by Western countries (e.g. heavy 155mm self-propelled artillery) have not yet arrived. Their timely arrival is not expected at the moment.

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