UKRAINE: 3 questions - 3 answers, Part 2: What are the consequences of the attack?

Around the fighting in Ukraine, we are receiving many questions from concerned citizens. In the coming days, we will answer the most common ones here.

This time, Colonel Markus Reisner is answering. He heads the development department at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.

What the Bundesheer expert says:

What are the goals of the Russian Federation with a military attack on the entire Ukraine?

President Putin has clearly defined the goals to be achieved in his speech on February 21, 2022, as well as in a press conference. Ukraine is supposed to be demilitarized and neutral. In addition, it should not join NATO. Russia does not want missiles stationed on Ukrainian territory that pose a threat to Moscow.

How concerned are we that the conflict in Eastern Europe will escalate into a conflagration?

Such a development is not currently evident. For this to happen, there would need to be an attack by Russian troops on NATO countries. This strategic approach cannot be inferred from the current military actions. However, in the long term, there could be a ongoing confrontation with NATO ("Cold War 2.0").

Can we already estimate what a long-term annexation of Ukraine would mean?

A possible complete annexation of Ukraine would be a turning point. The taking of Ukraine constitutes a clear violation of international law. Russia is thus questioning the international order (UN Charter). The current attack will have far-reaching consequences for European and transatlantic security policy.

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