The situation 1685 – November 1, 2026

1. Russian forces lost ground on the battlefield in October 2026 for the second month in a row.
2. Russian forces suffered their highest monthly losses of the war thus far in October 2026, paying a growing price for their territorial losses.
3. Russian forces have managed to make marginal advances in the Dobropillya direction by committing substantial resources and personnel, but the seizure of Dobropillya would not enable sweeping Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast.
4. The Russian military command does not appear to have modified plans even for the forces defeated by Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction.
5. Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi has had cascading effects on Russian offensives against the Fortress Belt directly from the east.
6. Russian forces have not yet completed the seizure of Kostyantynivka over a year after first infiltrating into the town.
7. Russian forces continue to commit personnel and mechanized elements in the Hulyaipole direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast and are making limited and mostly local advances.
8. Russian forces continue limited offensive efforts to expand their claimed “buffer zone” along the international border in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts but have achieved only localized tactical gains.
9. Russian forces are largely deprioritizing offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Borova directions following the recent successful Ukrainian operations Vivaldi and Veles.
10. Ukraine and Turkey are advancing joint cooperation to support a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea and secure the maritime security of global grain exports, as sea transport has become increasingly dangerous amid ongoing long-range strikes.
11. Likely Russian drones violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace on the evening of October 31, as Russia continues to normalize its increasingly frequent and intense violations of European airspace.
12. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure overnight on October 31 to November 1. Russia launched 433 drones (including 64 jet-powered ones) against Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1685 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR