The situation 1681 – October 28, 2026

1. Russia and Ukraine continued observing a limited ceasefire in occupied Kherson Oblast on October 28, but it remains unclear whether Ukrainian civilians will have a legitimate and duress-free choice to return to Ukrainian government-controlled Ukraine.
2. The Kremlin continues efforts to persuade the Trump administration to make economic concessions and pursue business cooperation with Russia even as Russia continues to refuse to make any concessions of its own to end its war in Ukraine.
3. Kremlin officials continue attempts to exclude Europe from peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine while reiterating Russia’s 2021 demand for NATO to roll back its presence in Europe.
4. Three unidentified — possibly Russian — unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) struck a cargo ship off the coast of Bulgaria on October 28.
5. Russia continues to actively support Iranian-backed operations against US allies in the Middle East.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Oleksandrivka and northeast of Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced north of Kostyantynivka.
7. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missile and 88 drones against Ukraine overnight.
8. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian industrial infrastructure on October 27 and 28.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1681 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR