The situation 1654 – October 01, 2026

1. Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns that Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will hinder Russian attempts to assault Slovyansk from the east – suggesting that Operation Vivaldi not only disrupted Russia’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya directions but may also hinder Russian plans to assault the northern Fortress Belt cities frontally.
2. A Ukrainian military officer discussed the establishment of a Ukrainian position in the Slovyansk direction that can serve as the basis for future major Ukrainian operations after Operation Vivaldi.
3. Russian forces lost control over almost 300 square kilometers between March and September 2026 – a period including Ukraine’s successful Operation Vivaldi, which liberated at least 147 square kilometers over several months.
4. Russian forces likely at best gained no ground in exchange for over 46,000 casualties in September 2026 – the highest monthly Russian loss rate so far in 2026.
5. Russian forces struck the Southern Bridge in Kyiv City as part of their campaign to destroy the Ukrainian economy and to make life difficult in the Ukrainian capital.
6. Russian forces may leverage shaped charges on their long-range drones to strike large, reinforced targets like the Southern Bridge, but such efforts would require repeated, precise strikes over a short period of time to cause significant damage.
7. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 1 that Ukrainian forces used the new FP-7 tactical ballistic missile for the first time to strike an unspecific target.
8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area.
9. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russia launched 107 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 30 to October 1 and 97 drones during the day on October 1.  

The full update of the Russian offensive 1654 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR