The situation 1652 – September 29, 2026

1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues attempts to falsely assert control over settlements in the Lyman direction that Ukrainian forces liberated during Operation Vivaldi.
2. The Russian MoD’s continuous denial of Ukrainian successes in Operation Vivaldi, despite overwhelming evidence, continues to fuel Russian ultranationalist and milblogger criticism of the Russian military’s pervasive culture of lying.
3. The Kremlin reportedly plans to significantly increase defense spending in 2027 as Russian attempts to raise public revenues have failed to offset rising debt and deficit estimates.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin held several meetings with senior Russian officials on September 28 to present the State Duma election results as an endorsement of Putin’s policies and continued war effort in Ukraine.
5. Estonian officials attributed the August 15 arson attack against the Milrem Robotics defense company in Tallinn, Estonia, to the Russian Federation.
6. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to marginally increase the authorized end-strength of the Russian Armed Forces as part of ongoing Russian military reforms.
7. A Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed near Krasnoyarovo, Amur Oblast, on September 29, likely after experiencing serious technical problems, possibly an onboard fuel explosion.
8. Ukrainian forces likely conducted a strike against Russian logistics infrastructure along the Russian-Belarusian international border on September 28 to 29. Russia launched one Zircon/Onyx anti-ship missile, two Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, and 152 drones against Ukraine overnight.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction and in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Fortress Belt Outer Encirclement Effort.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1651 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR