The situation 1650 – September 27, 2026

1. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger is embracing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new theory of victory that relies on expansive long-range combined ballistic missile and jet-powered drone strikes against Ukraine to force Ukraine to capitulate over Winter 2026-2027.
2. Putin’s modified theory of victory heavily relies on Russia’s ability to launch cheap jet-powered Geran-type drones at scale and with relatively high penetration rates – requirements that Ukraine’s interceptor program is aimed at attacking.
3. Putin likely does not envision Russia’s long-range strike campaign against Ukraine to last indefinitely as he is likely attempting to force Ukraine to capitulate before Spring 2027.
4. Russian forces appear to be actively interfering with Ukrainian efforts to provide food to residents of occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast (southeast of Kherson City and on the left bank of the Dnipro River), threatening to prolong and intensify an already dire humanitarian crisis.
5. An unidentified aerial object that was likely a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 26 to 27, as Russia continues to normalize its violations of European airspace.
6. European security officials continue to investigate incidents of sabotage, some already attributed to Russia, against European defense and logistical infrastructure.
7. Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure continue to restrain Russia’s oil processing capacity. Russia launched 170 drones against Ukraine overnight.
8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Chasiv Yar tactical area and the Oleksandrivka direction.  

The full update of the Russian offensive 1650 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR