The situation 1649 – September 26, 2026

1. Ukrainian forces appear to be shifting their counteroffensive tactics toward systematically targeting Russian efforts to reinforce initial Russian infiltrations rather than focusing on clearing the infiltrators immediately in various sectors of the frontline.
2. Russian milbloggers continue emphasizing how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is facilitating Ukrainian successes north and northeast of Lyman.
3. Ukraine’s 2026 battlefield successes may be forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to rethink his theory of victory and rely on Russia’s long-range strike campaign to force Ukraine to surrender over the winter 2026-2027.
4. A Russian theory of victory relying on long-range strikes of the current variety depends on Russia’s ability to use jet-powered Geran-type drones at scale and with relatively high penetration rates. Ukraine is actively developing countermeasures to these drones, but it is unclear how rapidly Ukraine will be able to use those countermeasures at scale to disrupt jet-powered drone strike packages.
5. US and Ukrainian officials denied reports that US President Donald Trump allegedly asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to travel to Moscow City for peace negotiations, following a Bloomberg article reporting on such request.
6. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai and a military industrial enterprise, energy infrastructure, and an air defense system in Russia overnight on September 25 to 26. Russian forces launched 162 drones during the day on September 25 and 173 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 25 to 26.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. 

The full update of the Russian offensive 1649 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR