The situation 1641 – September 18, 2026

1. The Kremlin continues to deny that Russia will conduct mobilization after its September 18-20 State Duma elections, likely in an effort to dissuade Russian citizens from fleeing abroad.
2. The Kremlin will have to change its recruitment practices and likely conduct some form of involuntary reserve call-up in order to sustain its war effort in Ukraine over the mid- to long-term if it continues operations that generate casualties at the current rate.
3. Poland has changed its air defense posture in response to increasing Russian strikes against border infrastructure and drone and other incursions into the territories of states neighboring Ukraine.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin seized several prominent foreign enterprises under the pretext of defending Russian national security as he continues to expand and exercise his power to nationalize foreign and Russian assets.
5. The details of Ukraine’s restructuring of the military command arrangements in and around Donetsk Oblast are becoming clear as the new organizations come formally into operation.
6. Ukraine is attempting to increase the resilience of its energy system in preparation for Russia’s anticipated intense winter strike campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy grid.
7. Russia launched 93 drones against Ukraine overnight.
8. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and energy infrastructure on the night of September 17 and 18.
9. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1641 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR