The situation 1638– September 15, 2026

1. The Ukrainian military gave its first explicit confirmation of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations against the Russian salient northwest of Lyman.
2. The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps conducted an intermediate-range strike campaign to interdict Russian logistics and degrade fuel supplies as part of Operation Vivaldi.
3. Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi has achieved the operationally-significant objective of disrupting the Russian effort to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.
4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky restated on September 15 Ukraine’s willingness to engage in a mutual ceasefire on energy targets with Russia amidst US President Donald Trump’s push for this ceasefire.
5. The Kremlin continues to publicly and explicitly outline its continued commitment to its maximalist war aims in Ukraine and deflect from opportunities for de-escalation.
6. A Russian frigate fired flares against a Danish helicopter providing routine surveillance of the frigate in international waters in the Baltic Sea on September 14.
7. Several sabotage attempts occurred across Europe between September 14 and 15 that are consistent with the modus operandi of Russian military forces and agents, although Russian involvement in them has not been confirmed.
8. The US Treasury Department announced on September 14 that it imposed additional sanctions against Russian state-majority owned bank VTB for its involvement in Iranian sanctions evasion and increasing Russian-Iranian bilateral trade.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction and the Fortress Belt Outer Encirclement Effort.
10. Russian forces launched 200 drones against Ukraine overnight.
11. Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range drone strikes against oil, defense industrial, and military infrastructure in Russia.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1638 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR