The situation 1636 – September 13, 2026

1. Russian forces conducted a drone strike against a train leaving Ukraine and infrastructure at the Yahodyn border crossing on the Ukrainian-Polish border on September 13 as European officials were crossing the border.
2. The available reporting strongly supports the conclusion that the Kremlin conducted a precision drone strike intended to injure or kill European government officials and former officials as they were leaving Ukraine.
3. Russia is increasingly targeting Ukrainian border crossings and is escalating its drone incursions into European airspace in order to intimidate NATO into abandoning its support for Ukraine.
4. Russia’s increasingly aggressive activity targeting NATO member states should prompt NATO to reassess its current policy of intercepting Russian aerial targets only once they enter European airspace rather than over Ukraine as they approach NATO borders, in addition to rushing to provide Ukraine with additional air defense capabilities and the ability to strike Russian drone and missile launchers before they can release their weapons.
5. US officials continue to report that Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are getting closer to reaching a peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, while Kremlin officials reiterate their insistence that Ukraine surrender to Russia’s full demands.
6. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating that they are able to contest the initiative at the strategic and operational levels, contrary to Moscow’s portrayal of Russian victory as inevitable.
7. The Kremlin is therefore trying to convince the United States to force Ukraine to cede territory that Russian forces have shown no ability to take on the battlefield.
8. Kremlin officials are indicating that they will agree to US-Ukrainian proposed trilateral talks in the UAE, though the timing and the level of the delegations remain unclear.
9. US President Donald Trump called on Ukraine to cease strikes against Russian diesel infrastructure — a key aspect of Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign intended in part to bring about a mutual ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
10. Pressuring Putin to accept Zelensky’s offer of a mutual ceasefire on energy infrastructure would address the diesel price issue Trump has raised while protecting the Ukrainian people from the serious harm that the Russian attacks cause.
11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Fortress Belt Eastern Flank and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
12. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets.
13. Russian forces launched 453 drones and Banderol loitering munitions overnight and an additional 323 drones and 10 Banderol loitering munitions during the day on September 13.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1636 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR