The situation 1635 – September 12, 2026

1. Ukrainian forces in late 2025 and throughout 2026 have successfully contested the initiative at both the strategic and operational levels for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk Offensive.
2. Ukrainian successes in eliminating the Russian salient north of Lyman over the past several months have disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast from the Lyman and Dobropillya areas.
3. The Russian military command will likely need to reassess its campaign designs for the southern and northern flanks of the Fortress Belt given the elimination of its salient north of Lyman and particularly if Ukrainian forces are able to fully push Russian forces back to the Zherebets River and use the canalizing terrain to create a stable defensive line.
4. Many Russian milbloggers are acknowledging that Ukrainian forces have largely eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman and that fighting is mainly ongoing along the Zherebets River in the area.
5. Russian generals have reportedly asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for an additional 800,000 troops to sustain and likely expand Russian offensive operations in the face of enormous Russian casualty rates.
6. Russia does not have the training and administrative capabilities to absorb, integrate, and train 800,000 recruits at one time, particularly if Russian authorities try to do so alongside the semi-annual conscription cycle that normally starts in October.
7. The increasing Russian casualty rates and declining recruitment rate will likely force Russia to conduct some form of mobilization in the near term, but the type and scope of mobilization Putin may choose is unclear at this time.
8. The Russian General Staff likely wants to use the additional 800,000 troops to implement its offensive plans throughout the front rather than only in Donetsk, and the scope of any potential mobilization likely depends on what operations Putin authorizes.
9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support a future trilateral Ukrainian-Russian-US meeting and to suggest efforts to restart peace talks with Russia.
10. Ukraine’s ongoing long-range strike campaign and Western sanctions are actively preventing the Russian oil industry from recovering its processing capacity and oil exports.
11. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on September 11.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1635 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR