The situation 1632 – September 9, 2026

1. Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman and are criticizing the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military.
2. The Kremlin is conducting increasingly expansionary fiscal policy amid high war spending, which stifles Russian economic growth and forces Russian authorities to sacrifice non-war related spending, likely at the expense of citizens’ wellbeing.
3. Russia may be attempting to establish a rough analogue to Ukraine’s Brave1 defense platform in order to support decentralized procurement for good and limited defense articles that would bolster Russian air defense of industrial infrastructure.
4. Russian forces have reportedly suffered over 1.5 million personnel casualties thus far in the war.
5. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on September 9.
6. Ukrainian forces struck multiple military targets along the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai on the night of September 8-9, in part to reduce Russia’s cruise missile strike capabilities. Russia launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S8000 Banderol-type loitering munitions and 196 drones against Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1632 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR