The situation 1629 – September 6, 2026

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful compromises in the peace negotiations process to end the war in Ukraine.
2. Putin is doubling down on the fictional battlefield situation that he defines as “reality” and insisting that his misrepresentation of the actual state of the war become the basis for any peace negotiations on Ukraine.
3. The lies and distortions of Russian military commanders at many levels are likely leading Putin to harden his perception that Russian forces can achieve his intended objectives in Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and thus that he need not make any compromises in his aims.
4. Russia is failing to achieve its battlefield objectives in reality, however, and is specifically failing in its priority objective of seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026.
5. Russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all.
6. ISW is not prepared to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast on any timeline, however.
7. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Witkoff and Kushner in Kyiv City on September 6 and agreed on fundamental principles for ending the war in Ukraine, including security and economic guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
8. Putin’s demands transcend Donbas, however, as both his 2024 speech (to which Russian officials constantly allude) and Russia’s military operations demonstrate.
9. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) campaign in Rostov Oblast on the night of September 5 to 6. Russian forces launched 108 drones against Ukraine overnight.
10. Russian forces have achieved tactically-significant advances in the Hulyaipole direction in the past several months.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1629 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR