The situation 1623 – August 31, 2026

1. Russia’s second batch of Rassvet satellites appears to have failed to reach intended operational altitudes, marking another setback in Moscow’s efforts to rapidly develop a Russian analogue to Starlink.
2. Russia is likely rushing to launch Rassvet satellites to compensate for the loss of Starlink connectivity over Ukraine.
3. Russia will likely continue struggling to establish an analogous version of the Starlink constellation unless it dramatically increases the number of successful Rassvet satellite launches.
4. Ukrainian strikes against Rassvet satellite production and launch sites threaten to further degrade Russia’s ability to establish a successful constellation on a timeline Russia deems acceptable.
5. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to remain in favor of conducting covert mobilization following Russia’s September 18-20 State Duma elections and appears committed to sustaining his existing force generation mechanism.
6. Russian President Vladimir Putin met separately with People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 31 ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.
7. Russian officials continue to implicitly threaten NATO in the Arctic as part of its rhetorical efforts to deter NATO defensive and cohesion measures in the region.
8. US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials appear to be resuming limited bilateral negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
9.  Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Sumy, Borova, and Slovyansk directions and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
10. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Belgorod Oblast, including Ozon (Wildberries’ main competitor) marketplaces, on the night of August 30 to 31.   
11. Russia launched one Kh-59 cruise missile and 121 drones against Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1623 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR