The situation 1603 – August 11, 2026

1. Russian forces conducted another combined ballistic/quasi-ballistic missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of August 10 to 11, heavily targeting civilian and industrial infrastructure in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia cities.
2. Russian forces are likely launching small numbers of North Korean-provided KN-23 ballistic missiles in nightly strike packages in an attempt to battle-test the missiles and improve their accuracy.
3. Russia may be preparing to base North Korean missileers and ballistic missiles at a training center currently under construction in Voronezh Oblast.
4. The Russian Supreme Court disqualified the Russian opposition party Yabloko from the September 2026 State Duma elections, likely in order to prevent Russians from having the option to support the party’s anti-war platform.
5. Yabloko’s exclusion from the upcoming Duma elections represents a further consolidation of the Russian political system around the war in Ukraine.
6. The Kremlin likely also aims to reduce the risk of the ruling United Russia party not achieving the Kremlin’s desired outcome in the upcoming elections.
7. The Kremlin was permissive of Yabloko in earlier years of the war, but the growing persecution of the party and its eventual disqualification show how its priorities have shifted.
8. Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaigns against Wildberries warehouses and oil refineries in Russia.
9. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on August 11.          

The full update of the Russian offensive 1603 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.