The situation 1564 – July 3, 2026

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city.
2. Putin likely staged the meeting with his commanders late on July 3 at least in part to influence Western media coverage of the war into the weekend, particularly the July 4 holiday in the United States.
3. The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline.
5. The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia.
6. Unknown actors reportedly detonated an explosive against a car carrying members of the Rylsk Raion, Kursk Oblast administration on July 3.
7. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on July 3.
8. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a long-range strike against Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 105 drones against Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1564 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.