The situation 1528 – May 28, 2026

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin has likely developed a false perception of the Russian military’s successes in Ukraine based on heavily exaggerated maps from the Russian high military command.  
2. The Russian military command’s exaggerated claims about the Kupyansk area since late Summer 2025 show a larger pattern within the Russian military of misrepresenting the battlefield geometry at the highest levels.  
3. The Russian military command’s exaggerations are likely leading Putin to believe his forces can achieve his battlefield goals in the near to medium term, despite the fact that Russia’s battlefield performance has steadily declined in 2026.
4. Russian forces are reinforcing air defenses in Moscow City in response to Ukraine’s growing long-range drone campaign against the Russian deep rear.
5. Russia continues to struggle to defend against Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign and is reportedly resorting to war crimes to protect Russian military vehicles in the rear.
6. Sweden pledged a total of 36 Gripen fighter aircraft to Ukraine in a large military support package on May 28.  
7. Zelensky stated that the Gripens will help Ukraine defend against Russian guided glide bombs.
8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern in the Velykyi Burluk and Oleksandrivka directions. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast.
9. Russian forces launched one Kinzhal aeroballistic missile and 147 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1528 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.