The situation 1521 – May 21, 2026

1. Russia and Belarus completed their combined nuclear exercises on May 21, highlighting Russia’s ability to leverage Belarus for future Russian military operations and Russia’s deepening de facto control over Belarus.
2. Ukrainian strikes continue to constrain Russian oil refining and energy revenues, even as the war in the Middle East has provided a budget windfall in the short term.
3. Russia continues to tap into its gold reserves to cover its budget deficit.  
4. The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate Russian media coverage to downplay the Kremlin’s censorship campaign, likely to improve the public perception of the United Russia Party ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections.
5. Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
6. Russian forces launched one ballistic missile and 116 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1521 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.