The situation 1516 – May 16, 2026

1. The seniormost Russian military command presented a highly inaccurate assessment of the battlefield situation for the fifth consecutive month, absurdly claiming that Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk, which they have not, in fact, taken.
2. Gerasimov’s claimed advances west of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Borova-Lyman line are egregious even in comparison to the most expansive Russian ultranationalist claims in the area.
3. These aggrandized claims of fictional advances along with milblogger complaints may indicate that the highest echelon of the Russian military command is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning.
4. Russian milbloggers continue to warn that Ukrainian counterattacks and false reports of advances in other areas of the frontline are creating difficult situations to which the Russian military command cannot adequately respond.
5. The Kremlin continues to expand its passportization efforts in Transnistria – the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova — to deepen Russian influence in the region.
6. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
7. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian defense industrial infrastructure in Stavropol Krai. Russian forces launched 294 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1516 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.