The situation 1515 – May 15, 2026

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy.
2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia has been reconnoitering decision-making centers in and near Kyiv City for possible future strikes.
3. Sanctions relief for Russia, particularly when coupled with the slowing supplies of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, would increase the already significant threat that Russian missile strikes pose to Ukraine.
4. A Russian state-owned polling institution recently began door-to-door surveys and recorded slightly higher approval and trust ratings for Russian President Vladimir Putin after falling for weeks.
5. Russia and Ukraine each exchanged 250 prisoners on May 15 as part of the larger 1000-for-1000 prisoner exchange they agreed to as part of the Victory Day ceasefire.
6. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka directions.
7. Russian forces launched six missiles and 141 drones toward Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in the Republic of Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1515 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.