The situation 1505 – May 5, 2026

1. Continued long-range Ukrainian strikes against cities in deep in the Russian rear demonstrate Russia’s inability to reliably defend the major cities and infrastructure facilities of European Russia against drone and missile strikes. 
2. Ukrainian strikes are inflicting significant damage across a wide array of Russian cities. 
3. Russia’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine for allegedly planned strikes against Moscow during Victory Day reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition that he cannot reliably defend these deep rear areas, including his capital, from Ukrainian strikes. 
4. Putin’s insistence on holding the May 9 Victory Day parade reflects his refusal to accept the reality that Ukraine has brought Putin’s war back to Russia. 
5. Russian forces conducted combined drone and missile strikes during the day on May 4 and overnight on May 4 to 5, killing at least seven civilians and injuring at least 35. 
6. Russian forces conducted a double-tap missile strike against first responders in Poltava Oblast, killing two and injuring at least 23. 
7. The May 4 and 5 Russian strike series inflicted significant casualties despite the relatively small number of drones and missiles in the package as Russia continues innovating its strike tactics to inflict maximum damage in ways that disproportionately impact civilians. 
8. Ukrainian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast. 

The full update of the Russian offensive 1505 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.