The situation 1504 – May 4, 2026

05/05/2026 By Redaktion

A leaked European intelligence report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasing concern over his personal safety and the safety of his senior officials.
ISW has not observed independent evidence to support other aspects of the leaked intelligence report about Putin’s fears of a coup attempt in Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appointed Colonel General Alexander Chayko to the position of commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) after recent domestic criticisms of Russian air defense and air campaign failures.
Russian forces first infiltrated into the outskirts of Kostyantynivka in late October 2025 but have yet to achieve meaningful operational progress in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared a unilateral ceasefire on the night of May 5 to 6 in response to Russian rhetoric regarding a May 9 “Victory Day” ceasefire, urging Russian forces to reciprocate.
Swedish authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker on May 3.
Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on the frontline.
Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, five Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 234 drones toward Ukraine during the day on May 3, and 155 drones overnight.