The situation 1502 – May 2, 2026

1. Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast.
2. The relative decline in the rate of Russian advances may be related in part to annual seasonal patterns.
3. The rate of Russian advances has slowed in 2026 compared to 2025, but the changing character of the war, particularly Russia’s increased use of infiltration tactics over the course of 2025, makes year-on-year comparisons difficult.  
4. The Kremlin uses Russian infiltration tactics in part to exaggerate Russian control of terrain.
5. ISW has reviewed and refined its mapping data and methodology, identifying and rectifying some data artifacts that did not affect the visible map geometry but did affect some calculations of area. These changes have not affected ISW’s previously assessed trendlines of the Russian rate of advance.
6. Russian milbloggers identified problems with the Russian air campaign and assessed that Russian forces may not be able to take advantage of reported increased bombing capabilities.
7. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
8. Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian air defense system during their April 30 to May 1 overnight strike against Krasnodar Krai.
9. Russian forces launched 163 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1502 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.