The situation 1470 – March 31, 2026

1. Russian advances have slowed as Ukrainian forces continue to contest the initiative in different frontline sectors for a protracted period of time.
2. Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strikes are likely impeding Russian efforts to advance.
3. Battlefield realities as of late March 2026 continue to show that significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone total victory, are not imminent nor inevitable.
4. The Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of urgency by reportedly trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of Donetsk Oblast, which Russian forces have proven unable to take on the battlefield.
5. The Kremlin continues to set conditions to reject the legitimacy of any Ukrainian elections without direct Russian involvement in an effort to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and stall the peace negotiations process.
6. Russian authorities are increasingly turning to forced covert mobilization efforts as Russian forces suffer unsustainably high losses on the battlefield and Russian recruitment rates decline.
7. Ukrainian long-range strike campaign against Russian Baltic Sea port and oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast is degrading Russian oil export capacity.
8. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk directions. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
9. Russian forces launched 289 drones against Ukraine.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1470 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.