The situation 1460 – March 21, 2026

1. Russian forces have likely begun their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Ukrainian Fortress Belt, Ukraine’s main defensive line in Donetsk Oblast.
2. Russian forces are also setting conditions to begin intensified ground operations in the Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka directions to develop the offensive against the Fortress Belt from the south.
3. Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost.
4. US and Ukrainian delegations held a bilateral meeting in Miami, Florida, on March 21.
5. Ukrainian forces downed another Russian military helicopter on March 21, marking the second time that Ukrainian forces have downed a helicopter in two days.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.
7. Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure and chemical plants in Russia. Russian forces launched 154 drones against Ukraine.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1460 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.