The situation 1452 – March 13. 2026

1. The United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is already on tankers at sea until April 11, 2026, a decision that will buttress the Russian war economy.
2. The elevated price of oil and the US decision to ease sanctions on Russia will provide Russia with greater flexibility and support the Russian domestic economy, Russian force generation, and the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
3. ISW’s previous forecasts that compounding economic costs would force the Kremlin to make difficult decisions in 2026 and 2027 assumed that the trend of Russian economic downturn would remain true. The global oil price shock from the war in Iran has likely invalidated elements of those assumptions.
4. Swedish authorities boarded on March 12 a tanker that may be part of the Russian shadow fleet and has previously shipped petroleum from Russia.
5. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi provided details on the end strength goals of the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) and Russian first-person view (FPV) drone production.
6. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s replacement of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs’ (MVD) first deputy minister likely signals a reshuffling of the MVD.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
8. Ukrainian forces struck Russian chemical and oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M missile and 126 drones against Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1452 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.