The situation 1442 – March 3, 2026

1. The United States and Israel are striking Iran’s drone and missile facilities to reduce the pressure on missile and drone interceptors – a capability the United States is denying Ukraine by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles.
2. Russian officials continue to condemn the US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support the United States.
3. Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in mid to late February 2026 for the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive.
4. The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternate reality, setting wildly unrealistic deadlines that do not match Russia’s actual battlefield capabilities.
5. Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
6. Insider reports continue to indicate that the Kremlin is expecting the war to continue until at least the September 2026 State Duma elections.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1442 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.