The situation 1430 –February 19, 2026

1. Western sources continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives are not limited to control of Ukrainian territory — in line with ISW’s longstanding assessment based on repeated Kremlin public statements.
2. Western sources tied Putin’s unwillingness to compromise in negotiations to his belief that the Russian economy can continue to support a protracted war, which is consistent with ISW’s longstanding assessment of Putin’s theory of victory.
3. The Kremlin is attempting to distract the United States with bilateral economic deals in order to secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine.
4. The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) continues to move toward self-sufficiency, but Western support remains critical to this endeavor.
5. Russian forces have reportedly adapted their Geran-2 drones to be “mothership” drones that carry first-person view (FPV) drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1430 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.