The situation 1416 –February 5, 2026

1. US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on February 5.
2. The Kremlin is looking for new narratives to try to convince the United States and Europe to not agree to security guarantees for Ukraine.
3. Lavrov implied that Russia’s demand for Ukrainian “neutrality” aims to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russian proxy state.
4. The Kremlin continues to reject the parts of the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan as well as the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan as insufficient to address Russia’s demands about minority rights in Ukraine.
5. Lavrov attempted to portray Russia’s adherence to the short-term energy strike ceasefire as an indicator of Russia’s interest in good-faith negotiations, even as the Kremlin has routinely used such ceasefires to stockpile weapons for subsequent large-scale strikes.
6. US and Russian officials on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks have reportedly discussed bilateral military relations, including measures to informally extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) that expired on February 5.
7. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Russian officials are using threats of escalation likely to push the United States to renew New START on terms that benefit not only Russia but also the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
8. Ukrainian forces recently conducted FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strikes against the Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast.
9. Ukraine’s efforts to register Starlink terminals will likely impact Russian battlefield air interdiction (BAI) efforts.
10. Russia and Ukraine conducted a civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 5 following trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
11. Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the 2026 Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia to frame Russia as a multiethnic and multireligious state united around the ongoing war effort.
12. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Taras Chmut to represent the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) on the supervisory board of the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency (DPA).
13. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1416 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.