The situation 1414 –February 3, 2026

1. Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 2 to 3, following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.  
2. Russia’s overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles, consistent with the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure.  
3. The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations.
4. The short-term moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession, however, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium.
5. The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject the Western security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to prevent another Russian invasion.  
6. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war demands for a peace settlement in Ukraine, particularly those that aim to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), ahead of the next round of the US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi.  
7. The Kremlin continues to weaponize religion to demand restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty despite Russia’s own systematic religious repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
8. The Kremlin continues efforts to distract attention from and secure concessions in the upcoming February 4-5 peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which will coincide with the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5.
9. The Kremlin continues to attempt to disguise and dismiss the economic impacts of its costly war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and poor economic policy decisions.
10. India is reportedly planning to curb its imports of Russian oil, which would likely further strain the Russian budget and deficit and hinder Russia’s ability to fund its war effort without more economic consequences.
11. Russian forces are starting to use Gerbera drones as “motherships” to carry strike or reconnaissance drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear.
12. An unidentified drone recently crashed near a Polish military facility.
13. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1414 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.