The situation 1413 –February 2, 2026

1. Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russia’s demands for Ukraine “remain unchanged” and to reject security guarantees for Ukraine.
2. Medvedev continued to use nuclear carrots and sticks, likely in an attempt to distract attention from and secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine.
3. Medvedev implicitly threatened and accused Finland of dismantling Russian-Finnish relations.
4. Medvedev subtly threatened Russians who do not support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine and possibly against NATO.
5. Russian forces continue efforts to seize Lyman and subsequently launch an offensive on Slovyansk, but likely do not have the offensive capability to do so in the short-term, in part due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupyansk direction.
6. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are at least several months away from being able to begin a ground offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt from the north or east.
7. The Ukrainian government is working with SpaceX to prohibit all non-registered Starlink satellite terminals from operating in Ukraine as part of joint efforts to counter Russia’s use of Starlink to operate drones in Ukraine.
8. Belarus continues to increase the frequency of its balloon incursions into Polish airspace.
9. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1413 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.