The situation 1409 – January 29, 2026

1. Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
2. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the United States and Ukraine have finalized security guarantees for Ukraine.
3. The Kremlin continues to reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine, however.
4. US President Donald Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a week-long moratorium on some Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as the Kremlin reiterated its unwillingness to commit to a long-term ceasefire.
5. The reported week-long moratorium on energy strikes does not mark a significant Russian concession, given that Russia continues to reject a long-term ceasefire and has previously offered similar short-term moratoriums to advance its political objectives.
6. Russian forces are using cheap Molniya fixed-wing first-person view (FPV) drones equipped with Starlink satellite terminals to conduct battlefield air interdiction (BAI) against Ukrainian highways at an operational depth (about 25 to 100 or more kilometers from the frontline).
7. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be conducting a dedicated recruitment campaign for the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) at Russian universities.
8. Ukraine and Russia exchanged killed-in-action (KIA) servicemembers on January 29.
9. Belarusian balloons illegally entered Lithuanian and Polish airspace on the nights of January 27 to 28 and January 28 to 29, respectively.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1409 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.