The situation 1396 – January 16, 2026

1. Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
2. The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations.
3. Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine.
4. Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
5. Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war.
6. Media reports suggest that a car accident seriously injured Adam Kadyrov, the son of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov and possible successor, but ISW cannot independently verify these reports.
7. Ukraine’s European partners announced new aid to support the Ukrainian military and energy grid.
8. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1396 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.