The situation 1390 – January 10, 2026

1. Available visual evidence indicates that the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike on the night of January 8 to 9 struck a Ukrainian defense industrial enterprise in Lviv City.
2. Russian officials are explicitly using the recent Oreshnik strike to deter Western states from deploying troops to post-war Ukraine, in line with ISW’s assessment about the purpose of the strike.
3. The United Kingdom (UK) is preparing for the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees in a future peace agreement.
4. Ukraine continues to collaborate with its Western partners to expand the production of the interceptor drones that are crucial to Ukraine’s ability to down Russian long-range drones on the front and in the rear.
5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1390 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.