The situation 1378 – December 28, 2025

1. US and Ukrainian delegations met in Florida on December 28 to discuss the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan and other documents related to a potential peace settlement.
2. Recent Kremlin statements are at odds with several of the positions that Trump presented as the basis for ending the war.  
3. Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders continue to aggrandize tactical details to create the false impression that Ukrainian defenses across the frontline are on the verge of collapse.  
4. Putin and the commanders continue to falsely portray future Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast as a quick and easy endeavor.  
5. ISW has observed recent open-source evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in Rodynske and that Russian forces have operated within less than half of Myrnohrad.  
6. ISW has only observed open-source evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in roughly 55 percent of Hulyaipole.
7. Russia appears to be increasing the sophistication of its cognitive warfare effort that uses flag raisings to achieve informational impacts.
8. Putin’s meeting with military commanders platformed on-the-ground tactical commanders in an effort to lend credence to the Russian military command’s aggrandized claims.  
9. Putin and Russian military commanders continue to discuss the need to form “buffer zones” in areas of Ukraine outside of the four oblasts Russia illegally annexed in 2022.  
10. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1378 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.