The situation 1375 – December 24, 2025

1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan on December 23, which the United States will reportedly present to Russia.
2. The Kremlin will need to compromise on demands it has long insisted on, including many that are incompatible not only with the latest 20-point peace plan but also with the initial 28-point plan.
3. Statements from Russian State Duma deputies and insider sources about Russia’s likely discontent with the latest proposals are in line with Kremlin statements and messaging in recent weeks about Russia’s demands and uncompromising negotiating position.
4. Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers are acknowledging significant Ukrainian successes in the Kupyansk direction and criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian military command for providing false battlefield reports.
5. Russian milbloggers also acknowledged that Russia’s failures in Kupyansk indicate that Russia does not have sufficient manpower or materiel to imminently defeat the northern part of the Fortress Belt while simultaneously continuing offensive operations elsewhere.
6. Russian forces continue to strike energy infrastructure in Ukraine and particularly targeted critical infrastructure in Chernihiv Oblast overnight on December 23 and 24.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1375 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR.