The situation 1350 – November 29, 2025

1. Russian state media is leveraging Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse, likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure itself militarily. ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse.
2. Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast overnight on November 28 and 29, killing at least three civilians and injuring at least 52.
3. Ukrainian forces recently struck two Russian shadow fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea — the first time Ukrainian forces attacked shadow fleet vessels. Ukrainian forces also struck and a marine terminal with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) amid continued drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and military infrastructure.
4. The Russian economy continues to show signs of fracturing as Russia continues to prioritize its war time economy over stability.
5. Balloons from Belarusian airspace continued incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania overnight on November 28 to 29.
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov is leading a Ukrainian delegation to the United States.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Kupyansk.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1350 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR