The situation 1348 – November 26, 2025

1. Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.
2. Recent Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have largely been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather conditions.
3. Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped.
4. Kremlin officials continue setting conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia’s maximalist demands.
5. The Kremlin is reportedly concerned that the United States will correctly interpret Russia as unwilling to meaningfully engage in negotiations and accept any peace deal that compromises its ability to achieve its maximalist claims.
6. Recent Ukrainian counterattacks may further delay Russian forces’ seizure of Pokrovsk, though the situation in Pokrovsk remains serious and dynamic at this time.
7. Russia continues setting conditions to deploy active reservists to combat against Ukraine.
8. Russia’s long-range strike campaign is increasingly killing and injuring civilians.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1348 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR