The situation 1337 – November 15, 2025

1. Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine’s need for traditional weapons systems.
2. Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to replicate Russia’s battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign on a limited scale.
3. Russia’s large-scale production of glide bombs and Shahed-type drones will continue to facilitate Russia’s BAI campaign on the front.
4. North Korea continues to provide military support to Russia and may be preparing to provide Russia with drones in the future.
5. Russian forces continue their BAI campaign against Ukrainian railway infrastructure, seeking to disrupt Ukrainian rear logistics hubs to facilitate battlefield gains.
6. Russia’s long-range drone and missile strike tactics are precisely targeting gas infrastructure in Ukraine during the heating season.
7. Russia appears to be setting conditions to deploy involuntarily called up reservists to occupied Ukraine, likely in an effort to commit them to combat operations.
8. Russian forces continue to boast about executing Ukrainian servicemembers.
9. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1337 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR