The situation 1316 – October 25, 2025

1. The Kremlin is attempting to leverage the visit of Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev to the United States to spread Kremlin narratives in the US information space.
2. Dmitriev effectively acknowledged that Ukraine has made compromises in its negotiating position while reaffirming that Russia’s maximalist demands from 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged.
3. Dmitriev attempted to appeal to what he perceives to be Trump administration interests in order to distract from Dmitriev’s statements, which demonstrate Russia’s continued unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war.
4. Russian State Duma deputies continue to publicly state that Russia has not changed its maximalist demands — contradicting Dmitriev’s attempts to obfuscate his reiteration of unchanged Russia’s demands in his interviews with US media outlets.
5. Dmitriev heavily promoted US-Russian economic cooperation while subtly alluding to Russia’s status as a nuclear power.
6. The British and French-led Coalition of the Willing met on October 24 in the UK to discuss further support for Ukraine and to put pressure on Russia.
7. Russian forces are making gains near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (directly east of Pokrovsk) that are significant but likely do not portend the imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area.
8. Russian forces are employing infiltration tactics in other areas of the front line for informational effects.
9. Russian forces continue attempts to leverage poor weather conditions to conduct larger mechanized assaults but continue to suffer high vehicle losses disproportionate to their gains.
10. Russian aircraft may have violated Japanese airspace on October 24.
11. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.
12. Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1316 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR