The situation 1294 – October 3, 2025

1. Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages.
2. Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days.
3. Russian forces are likely leveraging recent upgrades to Russian ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems.
4. Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating in their airspace.
5. The Kremlin continues efforts to undermine Western-brokered peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.
6. Norway and Ukraine’s European partners opened the largest training center for Ukrainian military personnel in Poland on October 1.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1294 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR