The situation 1272 – September 10, 2025

1. Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion.
2. The large number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional Russian effort.
3. At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones, and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer 2025.
4. Russian officials denied that the drones came from Russia and attempted to deflect blame onto Ukraine.
5. Belarusian officials attempted to deny any involvement in the Russian drone incursion despite evidence that the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus.
6. Russia is likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance.
7. Russia is likely also attempting to limit or deter Western military aid to Ukraine.
8. Russian milbloggers amplified various narratives to refute Western reporting about the Russian violation of Polish airspace, many of which cohered with official Russian and Belarusian responses.
9. Ukraine’s Western partners continue to pledge military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
10. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1272 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR