The situation 1271 – September 9, 2025

1. Russian territorial gains have become less costly over the last four months compared to Spring 2025 as Russian forces are sustaining a lower casualty rate per square kilometer seized.
2. Russian casualty rates per square kilometer peaked in the first four months of 2025 as Russian forces fought to maintain the intensified pace of offensive operations they began in Fall 2024.
3. Russian advances began to slow during the first four months of 2025 as Russian casualties remained consistent, resulting in a higher Russian casualty rate between January and April 2025.
4. Russian forces began to make quicker gains in May 2025 and have sustained a faster rate of advance over the last four months as Russian casualties marginally decreased, although Russian forces continue to advance at footpace.
5. Russian casualty rates have likely decreased in Ukraine due to Russia’s renewed emphasis on using UAVs to generate some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI), largely led by UAV operators of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies.
6. Recent Russian polling suggests that support among the Russian population for the war remains high despite growing casualties and relatively slow advances on the battlefield.
7. Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy infrastructure.
8. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a combined strike against three Russian command posts in and near occupied Donetsk City on September 8.
9. Russian State Duma officials are engaging in a top-down Kremlin-organized effort to threaten Finland.
10. Russian forces conducted a strike against a mobile pension dispersal point in Donetsk Oblast that killed and wounded dozens of mostly elderly civilians.
11. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.

The full update of the Russian offensive 1271 is available on UNDERSTANDING WAR