The Caliph as a Phantom

Media around the world are excitedly reporting on the Islamic State (IS) and its caliph, labeling al-Baghdadi as the new Bin Laden, naming him as enemy number 1 of humanity, the personified evil of the 21st century. However, the real problem is: there is no al-Baghdadi. Most media reports confirm each other and cite in a circle. What is really known about this man is at best vague - HERE is a summary of what is known). This article by Jack Murphy, Managing Editor of SOFREP.com, develops the alternative idea that al-Baghdadi is not a real human individual, but rather some kind of "immortal idea".

Back in the days when special forces conducted nighttime raids in Iraq, a few individuals were captured because they were supposed to be a terrorist leader named "al-Baghdadi," but it turned out to be a false accusation each time, hardly more valuable than a rumor in the desert night. The commanders reported mistakes and explained that they had arrested the wrong man, but they would keep their eyes open. However, the conclusion was never drawn that this person could be more of a myth than a real human being. But while HUMINT sources gossiped merrily about al-Baghdadi, there were never any SIGINT or other technical sources to confirm his existence.
The whole thing strongly resembles the mysterious "al-Qaeda Handbook" that supposedly existed in Afghanistan and that some SOF units chased after. Like Red Mercury it was a fairy tale, possibly set in motion by local sources who made good money with their information.

Al-Baghdadi, in any case, is a man without a face, his existence was never verified by a third party. There was no evidence that anyone with his name ever lived, until he suddenly appeared this year in a mosque in Mosul . "Al-Baghdadi" probably consists of several different individuals, some of whom are alive, others dead, all of whom have borne this name and acted as figureheads for the Islamic State in Iraq and then for ISIS. The concept of using doubles is a tactic that, for example, helped the Baath Party protect Saddam Hussein during the 2003 war. They had Saddam doubles all over the country.

This leads us to the question of who really holds the reins in ISIS. Who is really pulling the strings? Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri is a survivor. He was one of the oldest officials in the Baath Party under Saddam and managed to evade capture and escape to Syria. After Saddam's execution, he became the new number 1 and was always a thorn in the side of coalition forces in Iraq, as he supported the insurgents. Al-Douri can look back on a long history as a military commander and political leader. In his old age, he is someone who has the experience to mentor and advise a younger generation of insurgents.

Much speculation has been made about why Iraqi military and police forces quickly abandoned their posts when ISIS was advancing. The Iraqi forces were numerically superior and had the home advantage. It is more than likely that al-Douri used his connections from the Baath Party era to intervene with senior officers in Mosul and pave the way for the ISIS invasion.

Another ace freely roaming through Syria is the well-known Abu Musaf al-Suri. He was sought for his connections to the train bombings in Madrid in 2004 and the subway attacks in London in 2005. Al-Suri is also suspected of involvement in the 9/11 attacks, as he ran several terrorist training camps in Afghanistan for Bin Laden. He was captured and taken to Syria. The Assad regime released him there in 2012 - to send a message to the USA. Al-Suri is also the terrorist who defined jihad as an open front that anyone can join (Note: one of the most important books of jihadist literature, titled "The Call to a Global Holy War," is attributed to him).

What is really happening is hard to determine. Chaos and confusion fill battlefields, creating a mess that is difficult even for the best intelligence professionals to unravel. However, we should look at al-Suri and al-Douri as a possible leadership cell for ISIS with more likelihood than the "mythical" al-Baghdadi. Rumors about mysterious financiers in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also need to be clarified.

Ultimately, it is quite possible to assume with a high probability that al-Baghdadi is nothing more than a series of constantly changing characters, a series of illusions and confusions. Al-Baghdadi is not a terrorist leader, but more likely something called a "Stand Alone Complex" in science fiction literature. A copy that never had an original. His perception works in two directions: it reinforces Islamist extremists who do not know any better, and it scares the public around the globe through the hype of major media networks.

JACK MURPHY served in the 5th Special Forces Group and was deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, among other places. Since leaving the army in 2010, he has been studying political science at Columbia University. Jack Murphy is the Managing Editor at SOFREP.COM.