Conversations Amid Air Raid Sirens

Anyone who wants to work in the Ukrainian market has to go there, says SPARTANAT author Jan Hesselbarth—even when the situation is dire. I was in Kyiv from October 15 to 18, amid air raid sirens, emergency power outages, and meetings that were wrapped up in twenty minutes. Since my return, the situation has worsened: On November 3, the grid operator Ukrenerho described one of the largest attacks on the energy system since the start of the war; on November 7, Mayor Klitschko reported severe damage to energy facilities in the Kyiv region.

Wednesday evening, October 15

The first alert comes while we’re still sitting at dinner. Yellow, then red. At the neighboring table, people continue eating. Someone glances at their phone, calls out the direction from which the drones are coming, and the conversation carries on. I don’t want to romanticize this. It makes you feel uneasy. You sense the unease, you keep track of the situation, you sleep poorly. And you notice how quickly your own body adapts to the rhythm that people here have been living by for over four years.

What impressed me most was the level-headedness. In Kyiv, no one loses their cool. No one sugarcoats the situation, and no one paints it in a negative light. The city takes a realistic approach: electricity when there’s electricity. Water when there’s water. Work as long as it’s possible. In between, there are restaurants that serve good food and people who are warm and welcoming, even though they’d have every reason not to be.

The situation over these four days

Immediately before my arrival, on October 13 and 14, several energy facilities were struck, according to Amnesty International, including three of Kyiv’s most important power plants; approximately 600,000 people were temporarily without power.

On October 16, the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reported waves of attacks on energy facilities in Kyiv and other regions. Power had been restored to over a million consumers during the course of the day, though repairs were being hampered by ongoing air raid alerts.

On October 17, my last full workday on the ground, reports indicated that at least eight people died and 60 were injured; power was cut off for more than a million people in nine regions.

What Has Happened Since My Return

This issue is being published three weeks after my trip, and the situation as it was then is now outdated.

On November 3, the grid operator Ukrenerho reported more than 20 attacks on energy facilities within 24 hours and described the ongoing attack as one of the largest on the energy system since the start of the war; emergency shutdowns affected several regions, including Kyiv. On November 6, Deputy Energy Minister Artem Nekrasov reported power outages in seven regions, including Kyiv and Kharkiv. On the morning of November 7, Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported severe damage to energy facilities in the Kyiv region, a damaged Dnipro Bridge, and five people injured; he described the power supply situation as extremely difficult.

To put the scale into perspective: For the winter of 2025–26, the United Nations recorded at least 423 attacks on the power infrastructure and 74 attacks on combined heat and power plants. These figures describe a campaign against the supply of a civilian population, waged over years and continuing into the fourth winter of the war.

Twenty Minutes Until the Decision

The business aspect of this trip surprised me in another way. I have rarely had such straightforward conversations.

In Germany, establishing initial contact in the defense sector takes months. First, getting to know each other; then a letter of intent; then a workshop; then the question of the budget. In Kyiv, the question comes right at the start: What exactly are you bringing to the table, by when, at what price, and who is liable if it doesn’t work? Whoever can answer that is in business. Whoever dodges the question is politely shown the door and is out.

This toughness stems from a situation where delivery time is measured in human lives. One conversation partner put it this way: Either we get things moving together, or we’ll both save ourselves the time.

For German companies, this presents both an opportunity and a risk. An opportunity because decisions are made quickly. A risk because their own organization must keep up with this pace. Anyone who receives a commitment from a Ukrainian partner and then needs six weeks for internal approval will lose that partner to someone who’s faster.

Why this window of opportunity is opening right now

Three developments are intertwined, and they’re relevant for medium-sized suppliers.

First, the issue of capacity. The Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry - Рада Зброярів estimated the production potential of the Ukrainian defense industry for 2025 at around $35 billion, while the government can absorb about $13 billion of that. The remainder is seeking markets and partners. The estimate comes from an industry association with a vested interest in high figures; the trend aligns with the Ukrainian government’s export interests.

Second, the legal framework. In early January 2026, the “Defence City” special status was launched, offering tax and customs incentives, protection for production facilities, and streamlined procedures for certain aspects of defense exports. On October 19, 2026, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense listed 63 residents with a combined revenue of just under 111.3 billion UAH, up from 31 residents at the end of May. At the same time, Ukraine is establishing export offices in Berlin and Copenhagen, which will initially focus on matchmaking and consulting. Access is subject to requirements that must be met: registration with the state export control authority, end-use certificates prohibiting transfer to third parties, replacement of Chinese components, and certifications in accordance with NATO standards and ISO/IEC 27001.

Third, the German side. During government consultations on April 14, 2026, Berlin and Kyiv agreed, among other things, to a joint venture for medium- and long-range drones, as well as German financing in the “Deep Strike” sector amounting to several hundred million euros. The Federal Ministry of Defense (BMVg) put the German commitment for 2026 at 11.5 billion euros. The cases of Auterion and Airlogix demonstrate that this is translating into production: In early September 2026, CPM Defence Network reported on the start of series production of the Ukrainian Seth X and Anubis models in Germany, with more than 5,000 systems ordered by the German government.

Taken together, this creates a two-way flow: Ukrainian technology and combat experience heading west, and German vertical integration, quality assurance, financing, and market access heading east. In the middle of this lies the space for German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) below the system integrators.

The Soldier

On the second-to-last evening, a soldier came over to our table. He had heard that we were from Germany. He thanked us for being there—especially now, he said, when the situation is tense.

I have rarely been so at a loss for words. We had been there for four days. He had been there for years. And he was thanking us.

I’m taking this scene back with me to Hamburg, and I’m using it as a benchmark. On-the-ground presence is a currency in this market. People take note of who shows up when things get tough—and who cancels appointments as soon as the news takes a turn for the worse. Both are remembered. Both have an impact that lasts for years.

What this means for your company

The ability to travel is market access. Anyone seriously considering the Ukrainian market cannot avoid having a local presence. This requires a robust travel and security policy, with clear insurance coverage and guidelines for behavior during air raid alerts.

Decision-making speed is a competitive factor. The other side makes decisions in a matter of days. Internal approval chains based on quarterly cycles cost you orders here.

Compliance is the entry ticket. Export controls, end-use, supply chain origin, and certification status determine whether a partnership is even eligible for approval. This review must take place at the very beginning, following a case-by-case assessment with your legal counsel.

And redundancy must be included in the proposal. A partner whose power supply fails several times a week in November will value your capacity for buffer stock, spare parts supply, and off-grid operation more highly than your price.

JAN HESSELBARTH, as co-founder and managing partner of BRAVO SIX ADVISORY GmbH, is responsible for the defense division and brings over 20 years of operational and strategic leadership experience from the German Armed Forces, federal agencies, and the private sector. As a paratrooper officer and Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC), he was responsible for territorial tasks and host nation support at the Hamburg Regional Command following a deployment in Kunduz, Afghanistan. His consulting portfolio includes NATO missions, programs involving up to 1,000 participants, training contributions for more than 5,000 Bundeswehr personnel, and co-authorship of a nationwide study on maritime security for the Federal Ministry of the Interior—a core topic in the context of KRITIS.

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