Between Putin and Trump

Today, Carlo Masala will give a lecture at the Center for Military History and Social Sciences of the German Armed Forces (ZMSBw) in Potsdam entitled: “Between Putin and Trump. What next for German and European security policy?”

Livestream on the ZMSBw YouTube channel

Unfortunately, all seats in the event hall are already fully booked, but anyone interested who has not registered can watch the quarterly lecture via livestream on the ZMSBw YouTube channel. The lecture will begin today at 6:00 p.m. and will be available at the following link:

Between Putin and Trump. What next for German and European security policy? (German language) 

Contents

Germany has experienced a double turning point in recent years. German defense policy responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with rapid and fundamental changes. Defense spending was increased and a so-called special fund of €100 billion was made available for military procurement. After decades of taboo on arms deliveries to crisis and war zones, Germany became the second-largest supporter of Ukraine. The permanent stationing of a brigade in Lithuania is an expression of the Bundeswehr's return to defense and deterrence.

The Trump administration's departure from the Western alliance, which has been looming since early 2025, marks a second turning point. The US and NATO have been the central pillars of German defense since the 1950s. However, the Trump administration's wavering support for Ukraine, its talks with Russia without European participation, and its questioning of the NATO partnership are undermining the German and European postwar order. In view of these enormous challenges, the question arises as to how German and European security policy can develop further: What options do Germany and Europe have to effectively counter Russian threats? Can credible deterrence work without the US nuclear umbrella? Is independent European defense an illusion—or the only remaining chance for Germany and Europe?

Carlo Masala

Carlo Masala is a professor at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich and director of the Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight. He is one of the most profound experts on defense policy issues. For decades, he has been involved in teaching, scientific publications, and policy consulting on international security policy. With his publication “Wenn Russland gewinnt” (When Russia Wins), he recently outlined a scenario that has been on the SPIEGEL bestseller list since April 2025 and has had a strong influence on public debate in Germany.