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Our colleagues from US Special Forces Network SOFREP had the opportunity to speak with a friend who just returned from Ukraine. The chaos there is great and in the confusion on the battlefield, it is very difficult to recognize what is really happening. When you add the propaganda from both sides to the mix, it becomes completely impossible to assess what the reality is on the ground. Fortunately, our colleagues had an unbiased third party with their interviewee, who had dealings in Ukraine, to find out what is happening. Here is the interview:
What size, strength, and role do the Russian military and irregular forces have in Ukraine?
Approximately 5,000 to 7,000 regular Russian soldiers (artillery units, tanks, BMPs/BTRs, trucks, supply, VDV...), about 300 special forces, where "Spetsnaz" is a quite extensive term and the role of the Alpha guys in civilian clothing is completely different from that of the former "Sokol" special forces from Crimea, who act as advisors.
The irregular forces include approximately 20,000 men, including local Ukrainians, international volunteers, Russian volunteers (including a lot of neo-Nazis from Moscow and St. Petersburg), and mercenaries from Chechnya and Dagestan.
In your view, how does Kiev assess the military and political goals of the Russians in Ukraine?
The government in Kiev is still reacting to all the changes and tactics used by the Russian military and intelligence. As soon as they are close enough to a victory (such as in Donetsk and Lugansk - before the "humanitarian aid" arrived), a new front is opened. The latest front is the offensive against Mariupol and the threat of a land corridor from Russia to Crimea.
In my opinion, Ukrainians still do not want to believe that Russia wants to advance as far as Odessa, and they are constantly trying to achieve a minimum to come to an agreement. The General Staff of the Ukrainian military is full of former Soviet officers. Many of them have close family and economic ties with Russia and its military-industrial complex. Therefore, their perception of Russia's intentions is very biased.
What does the US State Department have to do with the Poroshenko government at this time?
The State Department is trying to keep the greatest possible distance in the current situation. There is very little support, and if there is, it comes through the Polish Ministry of Defense.
Have you encountered many foreign agents or other suspects in Ukraine?
A lot of journalists, but very few foreigners trying to meet the right people to get information. I was able to meet with the Association of former Ukrainian SOF Veterans, and they told me that I was the first foreigner to meet with them to talk about the war. That's crazy, especially since most of them served with the Russians in Afghanistan and they are still in contact with each other through social media, despite the ongoing war.
And endless Russians... really endless, everywhere. They tell everyone that they are Ukrainians, but that they have family abroad.
What do you think are the goals of the Russian military in Ukraine? Do they ultimately want to bypass and encircle Kiev or just pump weapons and mercenaries into the country to destabilize the region?
Maybe both... The "uprising" in Donbass was started to make Ukraine forget about Crimea and have to worry about bigger problems. But their military industry, the coal mines, access to the Sea of Azov, and the associated rights to gas extraction are too important to just give up.
The Kremlin probably thinks it would be a great opportunity to "establish a friendly new country" from Transnistria to Donetsk. They just need to maintain the current scenario until winter.
What is the morale of the Ukrainian troops? What help are they receiving from the West?
The morale in the military is very low. Some of their units were trapped without supplies (water, food, ammunition, fuel...) for weeks while being attacked by Russian artillery. Some units were completely wiped out. Volunteer battalions are independent, but tensions with the Ukrainian military are evident. They believe they are most exposed in combat but receive no support from tanks and artillery.
Very few are helping. Most of the modern Western equipment and weapons were in Ukraine before Maidan, the latest material is "crowdfunded" or manufactured by volunteers (including drones). The Ukrainian arms industry needs help to start working again. When Crimea was taken over, 13 of the most modern factories changed ownership. Seven in Lugansk, five in Donetsk.
Some countries with old Soviet equipment send spare parts for SU-25, AN-26, T-72... but that is very little. Croatia will send additional helicopters, as well as Hungary (through a Czech company) delivering old T-72 tanks for the Ukrainians to upgrade.
Were you able to talk to people and collect information from the front?
Yes, from the Donbass, Aidar and Kiev battalions, 95th Airborne Brigade, and a special forces unit of the SBU (Sluzhba bezpeky Ukrayiny/State Security Service). An incredible mix of characters, from over 40-year-old veterans with experience in Russian units in Chechnya to 19-year-olds working as SIGINT specialists using Zello (Note: a walkie-talkie app) and gaining information from VKontakte.
What role does social media play in the conflict? Is the internet down or are only certain services offline at times?
A brutal role. The Kremlin has a huge propaganda machine running 24/7, tons of Twitter bots... Rumors surface and shatter every minute, for example, that some new cannons were stolen from a Ukrainian depot... and suddenly the same system (that the Russians also use) shows up and crosses the border, but without insignia.
Communication is possible throughout the country, but there are no secure lines. Russian ELINT/EW (Electronic Intelligence/Warfare) units (especially the VDV/paratroopers) appear along and over the border to disrupt any communication prior to attacks. It's like an uprising with drones and better artillery and intelligence gathering (SIGINT), which is then exploited by regular troops.
JACK MURPHY served in the 5th Special Forces Group and was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan among others. Since leaving the army in 2010, he has been studying Political Science at Columbia University. Jack Murphy is Managing Editor at SOFREP.COM.
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