We have come to stay

The Islamic State spreads terror and fear, and this is deliberately intended. Those in the West who believe that this has "nothing to do with Islam" are under an illusion. Certainly, it is an extremist interpretation of Mohammed's religion, but the international influx shows how attractive the success of the "marauding band of robbers and murderers" is. They achieve something quite astonishing: the transition from guerrilla warfare to a liberated zone, from underground to regular combat. And where they establish themselves and make their extreme Islam mandatory, they apparently have support.

The uprising creates an area where Islamists rule, while this act brings even more volunteers and fighters to ISIS. However, the IS is a "state" that, according to Western and probably most Middle Eastern countries, should not exist.

Videos and images of mass executions, decapitated enemies, and murdered individuals line the path of ISIS, who proclaimed the Caliphate two months ago and calls on all Muslims to join them. In the West, there is a tendency to dismiss them as a "band of robbers and murderers" and terrorists, but that's not entirely accurate because the name they have given themselves declares their intention to establish a state that transcends old boundaries.

The first border that has fallen is that between Syria and Iraq. Raqqa is the official capital of the Islamic State, Mosul the hidden one. Their state currently covers an area the size of Great Britain. Since the beginning of their expansion, they have not suffered any significant setbacks.
The IS has people with political and military skills. In their structure, the ten-year experience of Al-Qaeda in Iraq's underground battle against Shiites and US forces meets the structural knowledge of the forces of Saddam Hussein's former regime. The success is also based on almost insurmountable religious and ethnic conflicts in the region (intensified by ISIS with deliberate terror), which stem from artificial borders dating back to colonial times. Nevertheless, it was surprising how forcefully ISIS transitioned from underground warfare to open combat. The success is linked to the defection of the Sunni minority. The opponent's military weakness can be measured by the fact that the Iraqi army created by the Americans was swept off the field. A concrete example: Mosul was taken by around 400 ISIS fighters, facing about three divisions (army, police, National Guard) who fled without resistance. (The failure of the Iraqi army.) The Islamists have benefited from their brutal and well-publicized reputation for showing no mercy to the enemy: Executions of thousands of Iraqi soldiers are meant to show "This is what will happen if you fight against us." They consistently apply Mao's guerrilla rule: "Draw a clear line of separation between us and the enemy."

At the same time, the Islamic State presents itself as a merciful partner to the civilian population. Those who pledge their allegiance to them are accepted; ISIS seems to be gaining increasing support among the population in their areas. They also make symbolic gestures: first, police stations, military bases, and checkpoints are leveled to the ground. Then the Sharia, Islamic law, is implemented in public spaces with executions. The new administration is divided into military and civilian committees. Any hint of resistance is crushed: for example, 700 men of the Al-Sheitaat tribe, who refused to swear allegiance to ISIS, were collectively eliminated.

The military capacity of IS is composed of a core of experienced underground fighters plus the structural knowledge of former officers of Saddam Hussein's army. An ex-lieutenant colonel is said to lead the military council of the Islamic State. Arab media claim that the troops have now grown to 100,000 fighters. It is likely a fearmongering number that does not reflect the actual strength, even though fighters from other Syrian opposition groups are now defecting to ISIS and recruiting new fighters from the territories they have occupied in Iraq. What stands out in the ISIS and IS combat videos is the disciplined and coordinated appearance of the fighters. Their specialty remains a dynamic attack form in pickup convoys (now also with armored Humvees), reminiscent of a cavalry charge.

Their goal is to stabilize and expand their "state." And then to expand it, far beyond Syria and Iraq. IS is a post-national and post-colonialist project. It seductively promises recognition, success, and salvation to every Muslim who joins them and is "orthodox." And their success is currently attracting a significant following, even though it is uncertain how that will look in a few months. The Islamic State consciously invests in professional media work. Targeted videos, websites, and social media channels cater to locals and foreigners. The latest twist is an "advertising campaign" in Pakistan, urging the Taliban to join IS as fighters.

New videos now focus not only on fighters but also on recruitment for construction efforts. Everyone has a place in the new Caliphate, says a propaganda film. Anyone can contribute to building the state through what they can do. They are also looking for people who can build houses, work on infrastructure, etc. The Islamic State consistently differs from Al-Qaeda. The latter focused on fighting the "distant enemy" – the US, the West. Their fighters were supposed to go there, work in underground cells, and carry out attacks. ISIS and the Islamic State prefer the opposite direction; fighters should come to them to secure and expand the liberated zone. The international fight seems secondary, although this is deceptive because all those coming from outside can quickly return as trained fighters and as "human cruise missiles" (i.e., suicide bombers) or combat elements.

What is unsettling is that IS presents itself as an offer to every Muslim to join them (shown in the image on the left: the cover of the third issue of "Dabiq," the English-language magazine of the Islamic State). The fact that this state is arising now between Syria and Iraq is only due to ISIS's history. Theoretically, it could appear anywhere; it could also unfold as a second and third state somewhere in the Muslim world. Create one, two, many Vietnams … The IS, as it stands now, will not be content to be confined to Syria and Iraq; it is conceived as expansive. Initially in the Middle East region, where there are certainly enough radicals to mobilize. Ultimately, it is envisioned to encompass the entire Muslim world, as they have the Caliph, so that people can join them. Thinking concomitantly grandiose, it is essentially a world war for the redemption of the whole world.

The ongoing development is a strategic issue, mainly a direct blow to the face of the USA: The "War on Terror" began with the occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 because Al-Qaeda's training camps were present there. Western forces are now on the brink of withdrawal from Afghanistan, without having even remotely resolved the Taliban issue in the country. The Americans have been gone from Iraq since 2011, leaving behind an "intact" army built by them. The current explosion of ISIS into the Islamic State through the merging of Syria and Iraq's Sunni territories, and the demarcation of the Shiite and Kurdish territories on Iraq's former territory, upends all of that. The terrorist camps are now, 13 years after the start of the fight in Afghanistan, at home in the Middle East and therefore much closer to Europe.

A full-scale ground engagement against IS with a new intervention is not on the horizon, even though IS is trying to "attract" the Americans with filmed beheadings of US journalists. Special forces alone and airstrikes (so far very sparingly used) will not decisively determine the battle. Everything points to a proxy war in which weapons are pumped into the region. The more the Kurds receive, the more assertive they will become in pushing for their own state, which they will fight for, separate from the Shiite-ized Iraqi National Army. They have one last chance for Iraq if they can retake Mosul; if not, it is a final failure. The geopolitical scenarios for the region are breathtaking. The Islamic State is not currently destroyable.

"We have come to stay," sings "Wir sind Helden." The song lyrics and band name are the perfect combination to describe the Islamic State. It is not yet clear how this terrorist caliphate could be eradicated.

More on the topic:

- A New Caliphate?

- A Brief History of Terrorism in Iraq

- The Caliph as a Phantom