UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 878 - AUGUST 8, 2024

The border-crossing Ukrainian mechanized offensive operations in the Kursk region, which began on August 6, are being continued as part of a Ukrainian operation on Russian territory. The ISW will not provide an assessment of the intentions of this Ukrainian operation in order to not compromise the operational security of Ukraine.

Geolocated imagery and Russian reports suggest that Ukrainian forces advanced further into the Kursk region on August 8, with Ukrainian forces reported to be present in areas up to 35 km from the international border with Sumy. However, Ukrainian forces do not control the entire area claimed by Russian reports of Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region. The Kremlin will likely seek to reclaim the Russian territory captured by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk Oblast and disrupt Ukrainian activities in Russia, as a significant Ukrainian advance within Russia would represent a strategic setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long efforts to solidify Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence as a legacy.

COA (Course of Action) 1: The Russian military leadership may decide to deploy conscripts, border guards of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already stationed in the international border area to push back Ukrainian forces and repel the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region.

COA 2: The Russian military leadership may decide to deploy troops stationed along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the north to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk area.

COA 3: The Russian military leadership may decide to move operational reserves accumulated for its planned offensive in the summer of 2024 and/or relatively better equipped and combat-capable frontline units from other parts of the region to the Kursk region.

COA 4: The Russian military leadership may attempt to retain forces currently stationed in the Kursk Oblast but could move critical air and assault units into the area to enhance Russia's ability to recapture territory.

The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk region and the reported pace of the Ukrainian advance indicate that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the Russian border.

Official Ukrainian authorities have not yet directly commented on the ongoing Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region.

US authorities note that the ongoing Ukrainian operation in the Kursk Oblast would not violate US restrictions allowing Ukraine to attack military targets within Russian border areas.

The full Russian Offensive Update 877 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR